Is Google+ losing its momentum?
Our data indicates that the average number of public Google+ posts per day has decreased from 0.68 public posts per day between 19 July 2011 and 19 August 2011 to 0.40 public posts per day between 19 August 2011 and 14 September 2011.
This represents a decrease of 41%!
A time series of the average number of public Google+ posts per user that uses ManageFlitter to integrate their Google+ account with their Twitter account can be seen below:
In July ManageFlitter started offering users the option of integrating their Google+ accounts with Twitter with our Google+ to Twitter tool.
To date 7280 people have linked their Google+ accounts to Twitter using our service. We check these accounts for new Public posts every 10 minutes which represents a significant number of data points. 130,059 public posts have been posted in these accounts.
A graph of the uptake can be seen below.
What is also interesting is the average number of Twitter followers these users have.
Whilst there was a spike in the very early days, the average number of Twitter followers for these users seems to have remained constant between 600 and 800.
See graph of average number of Twitter followers that use our integration service below.
Twitter followers can loosely be a proxy for the profile of person. So this data can be taken to represent that over time a similar profile of person is linking their Twitter account and Google+ account.
Hence the drop in the number of posts is unlikely to be attributed to a difference to the change in the types of profiles integrating their Google+ account with ManageFlitter over time.
One possible explanation for this data is that the people integrating their Google+ accounts with ManageFlitter are all early adopter sorts that get bored once their new toys are not shiny anymore. However, this seems somewhat unlikely given the spread of Twitter followers across these accounts. It is also often the early adopters that drive long term adoption and to see a drop off now is not a good indication for the service's future.
Another possibility is that people are using Google+ for private sharing. However anecdotally this does not seem to be the case from our experience with the service. Help us collect more data by filling in the survey below (you will see the results once you answer the question).
[Edited: Survey Closed]
We would be interested in any of your thoughts in the comments – do you think Google+ has already lost its shine?
We will keep an eye on this data and post an update in a couple of months.
Kevin Garber - CEO/Co-founder 89n